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GWT is a great alternative to building swing based applications. We have been using GWT+ GXT (3rd party lib) for about 2 years now and deployed in production. The apps are built more like a desktop L&F rather than a traditional web app and users are very comfortable using it for a little lack in the performance over the wire.
Enterprise customers have a hard time understanding the flash player to run Flex and that seems to be a major hurdle with flex (unless something has changed since I last checked the pre-requisites)
We're currently working on a massive technology migration OFF flex. Sounds strange I know, but one of the limitations of flex is that it is a very *heavy* technology. Looks great, behaves great, but for international web-available products it can limit reach to areas of the globe with bandwidth and connection speed issues.
Because of this reason, South Africa's largest health care provider is investing a lot of money in rewriting their (very expensive) flex applications to HTML/jQuery equivalent solutions. I know the first thing you're thinking is that there is no way that HTML & javascript can offer the same type of interactivity and richness as flex... but lo and behold, we have done it. We've designed a series of reusable lightweight javascript components, 'widgets', which all have the same level of richness as their flex counterparts. It looks and feels almost exactly like their existing flex solutions and comes at 1/5th the weight.
Not exactly sure about SWING - I guess most desktop user interface technologies are on their way out as the mass world migration onto the web/cloud. But i don't think it's an industry that will ever disappear completely. There are plenty of large enterprises who are very dependant on swing here.
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